Treasury yields & curves

Live yields, curve spreads, and what shape changes are saying.

The Treasury section covers the yield curve — every major US Treasury point, the key spread relationships, and live intraday overlays during US market hours.

Bond yields are the most important price in finance. Equity multiples, FX, credit spreads, and risk regimes all key off them.

What’s tracked

Point	Why it matters
3M, 6M	Front-end — Fed policy expectations
2Y	Most rate-sensitive — what the market expects from the Fed in the next ~2 years
5Y	Mid-curve — growth expectations
10Y	The benchmark — the rate the world prices off
30Y	Long bond — inflation and growth-trajectory expectations

Curve spreads

The shape matters as much as the level. Two key spreads:

2s10s (10Y minus 2Y)

The classic recession indicator.

• Inverted (negative) — front-end above long-end. Historically precedes recessions by 6–18 months.
• Steepening from inversion — often the actual recession trigger. The curve “bull-steepens” as the Fed cuts.
• Normal (positive, +100 to +200 bp) — standard upward slope.

3m10y (10Y minus 3M)

The Fed’s preferred recession signal — used in the New York Fed’s recession probability model.

• More sensitive to actual policy than 2s10s
• Inversions here have a stronger track record than 2s10s for predicting recessions

Live overlay

During US market hours, an intraday overlay updates every available tenor (3M through 30Y) on top of the daily close data. Previously this was a paid feed; the current build pulls live yields from CNBC’s quote endpoint as the primary source, with yfinance as fallback.

How to read curve moves

Move	What it usually means
Bull-steepening (front-end falls faster than long-end)	Fed-cut expectations rising — growth fear or active easing
Bear-steepening (long-end rises faster than front-end)	Inflation expectations rising — long-end pricing-in higher term premium
Bull-flattening (long-end falls faster than front-end)	Growth fear — flight-to-duration
Bear-flattening (front-end rises faster than long-end)	Hawkish Fed — pricing in more hikes

The Daily Recap’s Cross-Asset Verdict section will name the move when it’s the day’s story.

How most people use it

• Glance at 10Y direction first — the most important number on the page
• Check 2s10s and 3m10y — recession-signal context
• Compare today’s curve to the day’s equity move — when bonds and stocks disagree, the disagreement is the signal