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The Market Pulse sidebar is the right rail of the Macro page. It’s pinned — no matter which view you have open in the center, Pulse stays visible. It’s designed for the question “what’s actually happening right now?”

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The regime badge

At the top sits the market’s current state. (A Recap badge also appears here once the Daily Recap publishes after 4:30 PM ET.) This is not AI sentiment — it’s a deterministic engine that reads only prices and classifies the tape into one of six states:

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How it’s computed

Seven components, each measured from real prices and normalized against its own trailing year (so “high” always means high for that instrument, not high in the abstract):
  • Trend — SPY vs its 200-day, plus 21-day momentum
  • Breadth — % of ~1,600 tracked names above their 50-day
  • Vol — VIX level plus the VIX/VIX3M term structure (inversion = stress)
  • Credit — HYG/LQD relative strength
  • Dollar/gold — haven stress (both bid together is the bad kind)
  • MOVE — rates vol, especially when equity vol is asleep
  • Cross-sector dispersion — how far apart the sectors are trading (this is what catches ROTATIONAL)
Hover the badge for the confidence % and the ranked anomalies — the specific components most out of line with their own history, so you can see why the engine reads what it reads. The state labels aren’t vibes: the engine is backtested on 2+ years of real history, with each state’s forward returns measured. (In-sample, ROTATIONAL was the one forward-bearish state — flat averages hiding violent insides tend to resolve down.)

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Regime vs. today — climate and weather

The regime answers “what market have we been in for weeks?” — which is deliberately not the same question as “how’s today going.” A −1% session inside an intact uptrend doesn’t flip the regime; if it did, the badge would just be a daily up/down light. When the two genuinely disagree — a risk-off tape inside a RISK ON regime — the badge says so: an amber “risk-off session today” note appears on the sub-line beneath it (hover for the day’s tape score). On those days the sentiment gauge is also pulled toward neutral rather than parroting the regime, and the AI briefing is instructed to frame the day explicitly as a counter-regime session — including what would actually have to deteriorate (vol, credit, trend, breadth) to flip the regime for real.

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Two view modes

A toggle near the top lets you switch between:
  • AI Briefing — a written paragraph, refreshed every ~15 minutes during market hours. The AI’s job changed in V2: it explains the engine’s read — why the state is what it is, what’s unusual today, and what historical analogs imply (a nearest-neighbor pattern matcher finds the most similar past days and what happened next). It is explicitly forbidden from asserting its own sentiment — the engine calls the regime; Claude narrates it.
  • Raw Feed — chronological list of recent updates: notable headlines, model alerts, regime flips. Good for the moment-by-moment.

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The Macro card

The macro commentary is one card of tagged bullet reads — 2-3 discrete observations, one idea per bullet, most important first:
• Long-end repricing — 30Y at 5.05%, highest since Aug 2007… • Regime — RISK ON at 55% confidence, breadth balanced; likely persists while credit stays firm… ➡ Looking ahead — CPI 8:30am; the specific levels that would change the picture
The lead bullet is the key signal — the single thing a trader needs to know that isn’t obvious from prices, chosen by priority: multi-year extremes first, then 52-week levels, then statistically meaningful cross-asset divergences (sub-1σ splits are flagged as noise, not narrated), then ≥2σ single-day moves. One bullet always carries the plain-language regime explanation, and the ➡ Looking ahead line closes the card with what to watch in the next few hours.

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The Equities card

Same format — tagged bullets, one observation each — and it leads with computed observations, not leader/lagger lists. The intelligence layer scans the tape for the things a human would circle:
  • Divergences — credit vs equity, small vs large, vol vs price
  • Rotation inside the averages — a flat index masking sector-level violence
  • Concentration attribution — “78% of Tech’s gain today is two names”
  • σ-ranked anomalies — moves measured against each instrument’s own normal
  • Factor-basket extremes — auramarkets’ in-house momentum / high-beta / low-vol L/S spreads and squeeze baskets moving ≥2σ against their own history, reported with z, percentile, and empirical rank (“worst 1M run on record”) — the de-grossing/squeeze-day detector
  • Tape-vs-writer conflicts — when the writers corpus leans one way and the tape is doing the opposite
  • Writers × factor books — a FOLLOW-graded writer taking a fresh position against a basket leg (long a name sitting in the momentum short book), or the corpus crowding into the squeeze baskets
Below the bullets, Key names lists the 3-4 single stocks that matter most today, each with a one-line why.

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Key Events & Notable Calls

  • Key Events — curated list of events moving the tape: earnings beats/misses, headline news, big macro prints, each with tickers and an impact tag.
  • Notable Calls — sell-side upgrades/downgrades and big price-target revisions, filtered to ones likely to actually move price.

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How often it updates

  • Engine and tiles: every 5 minutes during market hours (8 AM – 6 PM ET, weekdays)
  • AI Briefing: every 15 minutes during market hours
  • Events / Calls: as they’re picked up from the feeds (within minutes)
Off-hours and weekends, you’ll see the last cached state.

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How to use it

  • Glance check — the regime badge is the two-second read; hover for confidence and what’s anomalous.
  • “Why does it say that?” — the hover anomalies first, then the AI Briefing for the full explanation and historical analogs.
  • Pre-market briefing — open before the cash open, read the briefing, scan Key Events for overnight catalysts.
  • End-of-day — when the Recap badge appears, click straight to the Daily Recap.