Why this matters
CTAs collectively manage hundreds of billions and trade systematically. When their signals flip on a major asset, flow follows — sometimes for weeks. Knowing where they sit is knowing where a meaningful chunk of macro flow is biased. It’s not a leading indicator of price — it’s a positioning indicator. Trade it as “what’s the crowd doing,” not “what should I do.”The 20 pillars
Equities (US, EU, EM, etc.), sovereign bonds across the curve, major FX crosses, energy, metals, agricultural softs. The full list is on the page itself.How signals work
For each pillar, the model computes momentum at three horizons:
These are combined into a single TSMOM score per asset. Hysteresis is applied — the signal won’t flip back and forth on noise; it requires a meaningful move to change direction.
The model exposes three weighting schemas (A, B, C) — different blends of the three horizons. A is the default; B emphasizes shorter-term signals; C is the slowest.
What you’ll see on the page
- Per-asset card with: current direction (long/short/flat), TSMOM score, vol state (Low / Normal / Spiking), days since last flip
- Aggregate view — how many pillars are long vs short, broken out by asset class
- Vol context — assets in “Spiking” vol get flagged; CTAs typically reduce risk on spiking vol regardless of trend
The strip on the Macro page
You don’t have to open the full model to get the read. The Macro page’s default view carries a one-row CTA Pulse strip: five class chips (Eq / Bd / FX / Cmd / Cr, each ▲ long, ▼ short, or – flat), a one-line verdict (“Trend books lean risk-on — 3 of 5 classes long”), the single strongest long and short (scores on hover), an amber near-flip count that only appears when an asset is within half a percent of flipping direction, and a crowding chip summarizing how correlated the positioning is (exact cluster numbers on hover). Click anywhere on the strip to open the full model.How to use it
- Confirmation, not signal — if you’re considering a long S&P trade and the CTA model says equities are positioned long across the board, you’re with the crowd. That’s not bad, just know it.
- Crowded position warning — when 18 of 20 pillars are positioned the same way (long-everything or short-everything), reversal risk grows. Crowded trades unwind hard.
- Vol-spike de-risking — when vol state flips to Spiking on a held position, expect CTA selling pressure regardless of the trend signal.