Earnings Monitor

The season’s full calendar and scoreboard — every reporter enriched with writer positioning, factor-book membership, 13F flows, and options-implied moves.

The Earnings Monitor (nav: Markets → Earnings) is the season-level view of earnings: who reports next, what the market has priced for the move, what your writers and the 13F crowd think going in — and once the prints land, how the season is actually scoring.

Two tabs: Calendar (forward-looking) and Scoreboard (the season so far, graded as prints land). Above both sits the Season vs History strip — the long-term context layer.

Season vs History

The scoreboard tells you how this season is scoring; the strip above it tells you whether that’s unusual. It tracks the S&P 500 season against its own 5- and 10-year history, sourced from FactSet Earnings Insight (the weekly S&P 500 earnings scorecard used across the industry) and refreshed automatically as new editions publish.

One composed read leads — e.g. “Record-scale beats (+29.2% vs +7.0% 5y avg) — but beats are being sold (+0.4% vs +1.0% 5y avg)” — followed by six chips, each showing the current value against its 5-year average with a deviation arrow:

Chip	Why it’s the one that matters
EPS surprise	The aggregate beat magnitude — the headline “how strong is this season” number. The tooltip carries the ex-one-off version (a single mega-cap mark-to-market gain can own the aggregate) and the 10-year average.
Beat rate	Displayed as deviation from its norm. Beat rates are managed — ~75–80% of companies “beat” in a normal quarter — so the level means little; the gap vs history is the signal.
Reaction beat / miss	The average price move around beats and around misses vs their 5-year norms. The only chip measuring positioning rather than fundamentals: beats rewarded less than usual means good news was already in the price. Shown amber, not green, when beats are being sold.
Negative guidance	Share of guiders guiding below consensus vs the 5-year average — the season’s forward-looking output, and a metric almost nobody retail-side watches.
EPS growth YoY	Blended growth today next to what was expected at quarter start — how much the season itself moved the number.
Net margin	The durability read: a season of beats on collapsing margins reads very differently from one on record margins.

Each chip carries a mini sparkline of its full quarterly history (back to 2019), and clicking a chip opens the full chart — every quarter as a line, the 5-year average as a dashed reference, tooltips labeled by fiscal quarter. An amber dot marks any quarter whose numbers were snapshotted mid-season (FactSet skipped publication for a stretch of 2022, so Q2 2022 reflects ~56% of companies reported — the chart says so rather than presenting it as final).

The strip is deliberately a different lens from the scoreboard below it: the strip is S&P 500 vs its own history (FactSet’s universe and methodology, with real 5-year baselines); the scoreboard is every $1B+ reporter, this season (auramarkets’ own universe). Keeping them separate is what makes each honest.

Calendar

Last session

A results strip up top: the prior session’s notable reporters with actual vs estimated EPS, a beat / miss pill, the EPS surprise %, and the price reaction. Two extra chips appear when they’re earned:

• > implied — the reaction exceeded what options had priced going in
• writers ✗ — writers covering the name were leaning the wrong way on the print

This week

Day-by-day columns (grouped BMO / AMC) for every upcoming reporter, sorted by size. Each row packs the pre-print context onto one line:

Element	What it tells you
Market cap + est EPS	Size and the consensus bar to clear
imp ±% · avg ±%	The options-implied move for this print next to the stock’s average realized earnings move — a 12% implied vs 3.5% average is the market bracing for something
Writer lean chips	bullish · 3 / bearish · 2 / mixed · 9 — the corpus’s net positioning on the name going into the print, from tracked calls
Factor-book chips	Which basket books hold the name (Momentum L/S, Low Vol L/S, High Beta L/S…) — a crowded-book name moves differently on a surprise
13F glyphs	Net fund buying/selling from the Smart Money tracker (13F 3▲ 2▼)
squeeze	The name sits in the Most Shorted book — short-crowded into a print

Filters keep the firehose usable: a size floor ($1B+ /$10B+ / $100B+) and a scope toggle (All / My names / Writer-covered). Clicking any row opens the stock pop-out.

Scoreboard

The season graded, refreshed as prints land:

• Headline cards — season-wide beat rate, median EPS surprise, the median day move after beats vs misses (this season’s real reward/punishment asymmetry), and how often the move exceeded the straddle — the “were options cheap this season?” number.
• By sector — beat rate, sample count, and median reaction per sector, as ranked bars.
• By size / by week — the same cut across market-cap buckets ($100B+ /$10–100B / $1–10B) and across each week of the season.
• Best / worst reactions — the season’s biggest post-print winners and losers with their EPS surprise attached, which is where the “beat big, still sold off −40%” tape tells you what the market is really paying for.

The calendar’s forward names come from the same feed as the Today’s Earnings strip on Equities and the on-deck lines in the Pre-Market Brief — the Monitor is the same data given a season-wide memory.