QFI — Quantum Fear Index

A Bitcoin-specific composite gauging quantum-computing risk to the network.

The QFI (Quantum Fear Index) answers a very specific question: how much should Bitcoin holders be thinking about the day quantum computers can break ECDSA?

It’s not a generic tail-risk gauge. It’s a focused composite of seven signals — some market-priced, some technical, some time-based — that together summarize where Bitcoin sits on the quantum-risk timeline.

The score

QFI is a 0 to 100 number. Higher = more quantum-risk concern priced in or implied.

Score	Label
< 30	Low
30–45	Moderate
45–55	Baseline
55–70	Elevated
70–85	High
> 85	Critical

The score is a tanh-normalized weighted sum of Z-scores across the seven inputs, so it never blows past the bounds.

What goes into it

Input	What it measures
Deribit skew	BTC 25-delta put-call IV skew on Deribit. The crypto-native “are people paying for crash protection?” gauge.
Forward basis	BTC futures basis. Compression often precedes stress.
Venue concentration	Exchange concentration risk — how much BTC sits at how few venues.
Q-day proximity	Estimated time until quantum computers can break ECDSA. Updates as research benchmarks ship.
On-chain risk	On-chain stress signals (large dormant coin movements, unusual flows).
Quantum equity momentum	Momentum in publicly traded quantum-computing companies (IBM, IonQ, Rigetti, etc.). Their progress is the clock.
PQ migration commits	GitHub commit activity in post-quantum cryptography projects. The defense side of the race.

Each input is independently harvested. If one source fails, QFI degrades gracefully — the others still produce a score.

Why this matters

Bitcoin’s signature scheme (ECDSA on secp256k1) is theoretically vulnerable to a sufficiently large quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm. The threat isn’t immediate, but it’s not infinite either.

QFI is the closest thing to a single number tracking that race — both how fast the threat is approaching (quantum equity momentum, Q-day proximity) and how fast the defense is moving (PQ migration commits) — alongside whether the market is starting to price it (skew, basis).

How to use it

• Baseline reading (45–55) — no action needed; this is “the market isn’t pricing quantum risk in any unusual way.”
• Elevated / High (55–85) — worth checking which inputs are driving the move. Skew rising means market-priced; quantum equity momentum spiking means the technology side of the race accelerated.
• Critical (> 85) — has not been observed yet at the time of writing. Would warrant attention regardless of position size.

QFI is a slow indicator by design — it measures a multi-year tail risk, not a tomorrow risk. Don’t trade it as a swing signal.