Prediction markets

Kalshi real-money odds on the standing macro questions — FOMC, the Fed’s year-end rate, CPI, recession.

The Prediction Markets strip on the Macro dashboard shows what real money is paying for the macro outcomes everything else prices off. Not analyst forecasts, not survey medians — live odds from Kalshi’s regulated event markets, where being wrong costs money.

The four standing questions

Tile	The question	How to read it
Next FOMC	What does the Fed do at the next meeting?	The leading outcome with its probability (e.g. Hike 25 · 51%), plus the probability-weighted expected move in basis points across the whole ladder
Fed rate after Dec	Where does the Fed funds rate end the year?	The market-implied median rate, interpolated from the “above X%” contract ladder, plus the odds on the nearest threshold
Next CPI print (YoY)	What does the next CPI release show?	The implied median YoY print, same ladder construction
US recession this year	Does NBER declare a recession dated this calendar year?	A single probability

Each tile also carries the 1-day change, a 7-day sparkline, and the contract’s close date.

Why these markets roll forward on their own

Each tile is a standing question, not a fixed contract. The September FOMC market expires at the meeting; the strip automatically re-binds to the next one. Same for each month’s CPI print and each year’s recession contract. When a contract rolls, the sparkline resets — the new contract is a new question, and splicing the histories together would fabricate a jump that never traded.

The thin badge

A thin badge means the market’s order book is currently wide or shallow — the price is indicative, not a firm consensus. This is normal for CPI contracts far from the print date; liquidity concentrates as the release approaches. Un-badged tiles have tight, funded books behind the number.

How the numbers are built

• Odds come from live order books, not last trade — the mid between the best bid and best offer, so a stale print can’t stick a wrong number on the tile.
• For ladder markets (Fed rate, CPI), the implied median is where the “above X%” probabilities cross 50% — the level the market considers a coin flip.
• FOMC outcome probabilities are normalized across the decision ladder (cut 50+, cut 25, hold, hike 25, hike 50+) so they sum to 100%.
• Odds refresh every 15 minutes during US market hours, every 30 minutes otherwise.

How most people use it

1. Before a Fed meeting or CPI print — the tile is the market’s base case. If the release matches the leading outcome, the reaction is about the details; if it doesn’t, the surprise is the story.
2. Watching the 1-day delta — a rate-path repricing often shows up here (and in the 2Y yield) before it’s narrated anywhere.
3. Cross-checking a narrative — if commentary says “recession risk is rising” but the recession tile hasn’t moved, real money disagrees.

Clicking a tile opens the underlying market on Kalshi.