AI Universe
The heart of the page: one module, two levels of depth, toggled in the header.- The Complex — five groups: Hyperscalers (now including SpaceX, Alibaba, and Tencent), Mag 7 adds, Semiconductors, Memory (SanDisk through Samsung, plus Seagate and Everpure), and Neo-clouds (CoreWeave, Nebius). Group membership follows Morgan Stanley’s AI-infrastructure taxonomy, with a few deliberate keeps (SanDisk; the Mag 7 adds group). SpaceX (SPCX) joined at its June 2026 IPO — Morgan Stanley classifies it as a hyperscaler.
- Value Chain — the complete Morgan Stanley value chain: 8 layers (Owners/Operators → Semi Production → Processor → Server Components → Server → Network → Internal Power/Cooling → Power Supply), 33 segments, ~220 names including the full international supply chain — TSMC’s Taiwanese suppliers, the Japanese equipment makers, Korean memory, Chinese optics, and the global power/grid complex. Where a company appears in several segments — NVIDIA is in five — the repetition is the read: it marks the chain’s chokepoints.
- Table — The Complex shows every name with price, returns, forward P/E against live analyst consensus, the 30-day revision in that consensus, RPO (contracted backlog in 1.9T of contracted backlog), so the strips read as summary rows, not dividers.
- Treemap — tiles sized by cap class, colored by the selected measure; hover for detail, click for the standard stock pop-out.
- Bars — segments/groups ranked by the selected measure, with min–max constituent whiskers showing dispersion inside each; click a bar to drill into its members.
- RRG — relative rotation vs SPY (the same math as the thematic and factor RRGs): which groups/segments are leading, weakening, lagging, or improving.
Baskets
Equal-weight rebased indices that follow the level toggle — the five groups at The Complex, the eight chain layers at Value Chain, always against SPY — with the same control language as the sector monitor: a lookback dropdown (1D → 2Y, YTD, custom dates), a % vs Zσ toggle, and three views — ranked bars around a zero line, the rebased lines, and a correlation matrix of the baskets’ daily returns over the selected window (which baskets are actually the same trade right now, and which diversify). The divergence between them is the story — memory and semis versus flat hyperscalers tells you where the cycle’s profits are actually landing.Universe movers
Beside Baskets: the top and bottom five single names across whichever level is active — all ~30 core names at The Complex, all ~220 at Value Chain. Each row carries the full company name, its layer · segment address, a centered-zero bar, and the % / Zσ pair (the toggle picks which ranks; names without enough history drop out of the σ ranking). Any lookback from 1D to 3Y plus a custom date, and a line view that plots the current ten movers’ rebased paths over the window. This is where the chain’s tails surface — the Japanese substrate maker up 24% on the day, or the neo-cloud down 13% — names that would otherwise hide inside segment aggregates.Credit — single-name CDS
Daily 5-year CDS settlement levels for fourteen AI-complex names, from ICE’s clearing house. Quoted as a price per 100 par — lower = more stress. Two tiles lead the panel:- The MSFT − ORCL gap — Microsoft is the market’s safest tech credit; Oracle is funding AI capex with debt. The gap between their CDS is the cleanest daily read on whether credit believes the buildout pays for itself.
- CoreWeave’s level — the pure-play AI-infrastructure borrower, quoted on the high-yield convention.
Names on different coupon conventions (100bp vs 500bp) aren’t directly comparable — the table tags the exceptions. And leveraged loans (where private AI-datacenter lending lives) are invisible to every public feed; the panel says so rather than pretending otherwise.
Hyperscaler bond spreads
The cash-bond complement to the CDS panel: a daily G-spread basket — what hyperscaler bonds yield over Treasuries — built from free primary sources (per-bond yields from iShares LQD/IGLB daily holdings files, the Treasury curve from FRED). ~147 bonds across Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet; the headline line is the 20y+ long basket (the long end is where the AI-capex debate prices), with per-issuer lines toggleable — Oracle trading at multiples of Microsoft’s spread is the story. A grey static reference shows Goldman’s hyperscaler bond basket (GSUCHS30), recovered from a published chart, for back-history to February 2026; our own series accrues daily from August 2026.Capex engine
Straight from quarterly SEC filings — fact, not consensus: trailing-twelve-month capex per hyperscaler, the aggregate capex-to-operating-cash-flow ratio (the “how much of the cash machine goes straight back out” number), each name’s free cash flow, and RPO — contracted backlog, the metric the market-focus poll ranked #1. Oracle’s negative FCF and its RPO running at multiples of annual revenue sit side by side here, which is the whole debate in two numbers.Compute & memory
- Cost of compute — H100 rental $/GPU/hr from three markets daily: RunPod (spot and on-demand), Shadeform (the neocloud median, with a live-availability count), and Vast (the marketplace floor). The spot-vs-on-demand spread and availability are genuine tightness signals no vendor publishes as a series.
- Memory spot — daily DRAM (DDR5/DDR4), NAND wafer, and GDDR prices, rebased for comparison, with the trend arrows from the source. HBM has no spot market anywhere — its story shows up through the memory equities and contract-price headlines instead.
Token demand
Daily tokens routed through OpenRouter (about 19 months of history), with the China share of attributed tokens as a sub-panel — a usage-weighted read on whether Chinese open-weight models are taking inference share. Source: OpenRouter (openrouter.ai/rankings).OpenRouter is a router, not the whole market — it undercounts first-party traffic (ChatGPT, Gemini) and over-represents open-weight models. The trend is the signal, not the level.