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Numbers across the site — scoreboard cells, volatility badges, pulse observations — carry two compact statistical qualifiers. Both answer the same underlying question: is this reading unusual, or normal for this instrument?

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σ — the z-score

How far the move sits from its own average, in standard deviations. −3.3σ means 3.3 standard deviations below what this particular series typically does over this particular horizon — measured against its own history, never a generic benchmark. That’s the point: a 2% day is nothing for a crypto basket and a genuine event for Utilities; σ makes them comparable. Rough calibration: |σ| < 1 is ordinary (don’t dramatize it), 1–2 is notable, ≥ 2 is genuinely unusual — that’s the threshold where cells get flagged and pulse observations fire. Z-score values are always written as a signed number plus σ — +1.7σ, −2.8σ, 2σ — never “z +1.7”, “z-score of 2”, or “(z 2.1)”. The word z-score is fine when naming the concept; the value itself always carries σ.

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p — the percentile

Where today’s reading ranks against that series’ own history. p97 = higher than 97% of comparable past readings; p0 = the most extreme low on record for that window. Same convention as latency metrics (p50, p99). Percentile values are always written pN — p50, p85, p100 — never “85th percentile”, “85th %ile”, or “pctile” as a value. Ranges use the same form: >p85, <p15, p90+, p10–. The percentile rides alongside the z-score on purpose: returns are fat-tailed, so a σ figure alone can exaggerate or undersell — the percentile keeps the z honest. A −3.3σ · p0 cell says both “statistically extreme” and “literally never been worse in this sample.”

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Where you’ll see them

  • Factors scoreboard — every cell: −3.3σ · p0
  • Volatility shelf — p62 badges ranking VIX/MOVE/SKEW against their trailing year
  • Breadth Regime — RSP/SPY at p47 of its 2-year range (>p85 EXPANSIVE, <p15 HOLLOW)
  • Market Pulse / Daily Recap — generated commentary quotes the same notation (“VIX +1.5pt but only 1Y p30 — a twitch off a calm base, not panic”)

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The color language

Colors on cockpit rows — the percentile chips, gradient strips, banner dots, ▲/▼ change arrows, and sparklines on the Volatility, Market Breadth, and Credit panels — encode risk meaning, not raw position:
  • Green = supportive of risk assets — tight credit spreads, low VIX, broad breadth participation
  • Red = a warning — wide spreads, an inverted vol curve, washed-out breadth
  • Amber = a fragile or noteworthy extreme — record-low implied correlation, a rich premium pricing event risk, a mild breadth lean
  • Gray = neutral / context
Each indicator declares which direction is which, so the same reading always means the same thing: HY spreads at p27 render green (tight = pro-risk) even though “low” might look alarming on a naive scale, a falling VIX arrow is green (calming), and a term-structure ratio rising toward 1.0 is red (stress building) even though “up” usually reads positive.
One nuance: percentile windows differ by surface — the vol shelf ranks against the trailing 1 year, Breadth Regime against 2 years, factor cells against each series’ own full history. Hover any badge for the exact definition.