The seven gauges
VIX (^VIX)
S&P 500 1-month implied volatility. The headline “fear gauge.”
- < 13 = complacency
- 13–18 = normal
- 18–25 = elevated stress
- > 25 = panic regime
VIX3M (^VIX3M)
S&P 500 3-month implied volatility. Same idea as VIX but on a longer horizon.
Used mainly for the VIX/VIX3M ratio (term structure):
- Ratio < 1 = backwardation (near-term fear above forward fear) — stress signal
- Ratio > 1 = contango (normal)
VXN (^VXN)
NASDAQ 100 1-month implied volatility. The tech-flavored VIX.
VXN persistently trading above VIX = vol risk concentrated in mega-cap tech. Compare against VIX for relative risk between the broad market and the growth tilt.
MOVE (^MOVE)
US Treasury implied volatility. The bond market’s VIX.
Asks: “is the bond market scared?” Often a leading indicator for equity vol.
- < 80 = calm rates regime
- 80–120 = normal
- > 120 = rates uncertainty
- > 150 = serious bond-market stress (think 2022, March 2023)
SKEW (^SKEW)
Cost of OTM puts vs ATM options on the S&P. Tracked as a percentile.
Asks: “how much are people paying for crash protection?”
- High SKEW (90th+ %ile) = paying up for tail-risk hedges. Smart-money hedging or genuine worry.
- Low SKEW (10th– %ile) = complacency about the left tail. Historically, this has preceded sharp drawdowns more often than headline VIX has.
VVIX (^VVIX)
Volatility of VIX itself. “How uncertain is the fear gauge?”
When VVIX is high, the market doesn’t know what VIX is going to do — uncertainty about uncertainty. Often spikes before regime shifts in vol.
COR3M (^COR3M)
3-month implied correlation across S&P names.
Asks: “is the market trading like one thing or like 500 things?”
- High correlation (during stress) = everything moves together; diversification fails
- Low correlation (during calm) = stock-picking environment
How to read them together
Use these alongside the quant score and the Daily Recap’s Cross-Asset Verdict for a complete read.