> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://auramarkets.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Treasury yields & curves

> Live yields, curve spreads, and what shape changes are saying.

The Treasury section covers the **yield curve** — every major US Treasury point, the key spread relationships, and live intraday overlays during US market hours.

Bond yields are the most important price in finance. Equity multiples, FX, credit spreads, and risk regimes all key off them.

## What's tracked

| Point      | Why it matters                                                                   |
| ---------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **3M, 6M** | Front-end — Fed policy expectations                                              |
| **2Y**     | Most rate-sensitive — what the market expects from the Fed in the next \~2 years |
| **5Y**     | Mid-curve — growth expectations                                                  |
| **10Y**    | The benchmark — the rate the world prices off                                    |
| **30Y**    | Long bond — inflation and growth-trajectory expectations                         |

## Curve spreads

The shape matters as much as the level. Two key spreads:

### 2s10s (10Y minus 2Y)

The classic recession indicator.

* **Inverted (negative)** — front-end above long-end. Historically precedes recessions by 6–18 months.
* **Steepening from inversion** — often the actual recession trigger. The curve "bull-steepens" as the Fed cuts.
* **Normal (positive, +100 to +200 bp)** — standard upward slope.

### 3m10y (10Y minus 3M)

The Fed's preferred recession signal — used in the New York Fed's recession probability model.

* More sensitive to actual policy than 2s10s
* Inversions here have a stronger track record than 2s10s for predicting recessions

## Live overlay

During US market hours, an intraday overlay updates every available tenor (3M through 30Y) on top of the daily close data. Previously this was a paid feed; the current build pulls live yields from CNBC's quote endpoint as the primary source, with yfinance as fallback.

## How to read curve moves

| Move                                                       | What it usually means                                                   |
| ---------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Bull-steepening** (front-end falls faster than long-end) | Fed-cut expectations rising — growth fear or active easing              |
| **Bear-steepening** (long-end rises faster than front-end) | Inflation expectations rising — long-end pricing-in higher term premium |
| **Bull-flattening** (long-end falls faster than front-end) | Growth fear — flight-to-duration                                        |
| **Bear-flattening** (front-end rises faster than long-end) | Hawkish Fed — pricing in more hikes                                     |

The [Daily Recap](/macro/daily-recap)'s **Cross-Asset Verdict** section will name the move when it's the day's story.

## How most people use it

* **Glance at 10Y direction first** — the most important number on the page
* **Check 2s10s and 3m10y** — recession-signal context
* **Compare today's curve to the day's equity move** — when bonds and stocks disagree, the disagreement is the signal