> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://auramarkets.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# QFI — Quantum Fear Index

> A Bitcoin-specific composite gauging quantum-computing risk to the network.

The **QFI (Quantum Fear Index)** answers a very specific question: *how much should Bitcoin holders be thinking about the day quantum computers can break ECDSA?*

It's not a generic tail-risk gauge. It's a focused composite of seven signals — some market-priced, some technical, some time-based — that together summarize where Bitcoin sits on the quantum-risk timeline.

## The score

QFI is a **0 to 100** number. Higher = more quantum-risk concern priced in or implied.

| Score     | Label    |
| --------- | -------- |
| **\< 30** | Low      |
| **30–45** | Moderate |
| **45–55** | Baseline |
| **55–70** | Elevated |
| **70–85** | High     |
| **> 85**  | Critical |

The score is a tanh-normalized weighted sum of Z-scores across the seven inputs, so it never blows past the bounds.

## What goes into it

| Input                       | What it measures                                                                                                 |
| --------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Deribit skew**            | BTC 25-delta put-call IV skew on Deribit. The crypto-native "are people paying for crash protection?" gauge.     |
| **Forward basis**           | BTC futures basis. Compression often precedes stress.                                                            |
| **Venue concentration**     | Exchange concentration risk — how much BTC sits at how few venues.                                               |
| **Q-day proximity**         | Estimated time until quantum computers can break ECDSA. Updates as research benchmarks ship.                     |
| **On-chain risk**           | On-chain stress signals (large dormant coin movements, unusual flows).                                           |
| **Quantum equity momentum** | Momentum in publicly traded quantum-computing companies (IBM, IonQ, Rigetti, etc.). Their progress is the clock. |
| **PQ migration commits**    | GitHub commit activity in post-quantum cryptography projects. The defense side of the race.                      |

Each input is independently harvested. If one source fails, QFI degrades gracefully — the others still produce a score.

## Why this matters

Bitcoin's signature scheme (ECDSA on secp256k1) is theoretically vulnerable to a sufficiently large quantum computer running Shor's algorithm. The threat isn't immediate, but it's not infinite either.

QFI is the closest thing to a single number tracking that race — both **how fast the threat is approaching** (quantum equity momentum, Q-day proximity) and **how fast the defense is moving** (PQ migration commits) — alongside whether the **market** is starting to price it (skew, basis).

## How to use it

* **Baseline reading (45–55)** — no action needed; this is "the market isn't pricing quantum risk in any unusual way."
* **Elevated / High (55–85)** — worth checking *which* inputs are driving the move. Skew rising means market-priced; quantum equity momentum spiking means the technology side of the race accelerated.
* **Critical (> 85)** — has not been observed yet at the time of writing. Would warrant attention regardless of position size.

QFI is a **slow** indicator by design — it measures a multi-year tail risk, not a tomorrow risk. Don't trade it as a swing signal.