> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://auramarkets.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Prediction markets

> Kalshi real-money odds on the standing macro questions — FOMC, the Fed's year-end rate, CPI, recession.

The **Prediction Markets** strip on the [Macro](https://auramarkets.io/macro) dashboard shows what real money is paying for the macro outcomes everything else prices off. Not analyst forecasts, not survey medians — live odds from Kalshi's regulated event markets, where being wrong costs money.

## The four standing questions

| Tile                       | The question                                            | How to read it                                                                                                                                           |
| -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Next FOMC**              | What does the Fed do at the next meeting?               | The leading outcome with its probability (e.g. *Hike 25 · 51%*), plus the probability-weighted **expected move in basis points** across the whole ladder |
| **Fed rate after Dec**     | Where does the Fed funds rate end the year?             | The market-implied **median rate**, interpolated from the "above X%" contract ladder, plus the odds on the nearest threshold                             |
| **Next CPI print (YoY)**   | What does the next CPI release show?                    | The implied **median YoY print**, same ladder construction                                                                                               |
| **US recession this year** | Does NBER declare a recession dated this calendar year? | A single probability                                                                                                                                     |

Each tile also carries the **1-day change**, a **7-day sparkline**, and the contract's close date.

## Why these markets roll forward on their own

Each tile is a *standing question*, not a fixed contract. The September FOMC market expires at the meeting; the strip automatically re-binds to the next one. Same for each month's CPI print and each year's recession contract. When a contract rolls, the sparkline resets — the new contract is a new question, and splicing the histories together would fabricate a jump that never traded.

## The thin badge

<Note>
  A **thin** badge means the market's order book is currently wide or shallow — the price is indicative, not a firm consensus. This is normal for CPI contracts far from the print date; liquidity concentrates as the release approaches. Un-badged tiles have tight, funded books behind the number.
</Note>

## How the numbers are built

* Odds come from live **order books**, not last trade — the mid between the best bid and best offer, so a stale print can't stick a wrong number on the tile.
* For ladder markets (Fed rate, CPI), the implied median is where the "above X%" probabilities cross 50% — the level the market considers a coin flip.
* FOMC outcome probabilities are normalized across the decision ladder (cut 50+, cut 25, hold, hike 25, hike 50+) so they sum to 100%.
* Odds refresh every 15 minutes during US market hours, every 30 minutes otherwise.

## How most people use it

1. **Before a Fed meeting or CPI print** — the tile is the market's base case. If the release matches the leading outcome, the reaction is about the details; if it doesn't, the surprise is the story.
2. **Watching the 1-day delta** — a rate-path repricing often shows up here (and in the [2Y yield](/macro/treasury-yields)) before it's narrated anywhere.
3. **Cross-checking a narrative** — if commentary says "recession risk is rising" but the recession tile hasn't moved, real money disagrees.

Clicking a tile opens the underlying market on Kalshi.