> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://auramarkets.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# CTA Trend Following

> Where the trend-following crowd is positioned across 20 macro pillars.

The **CTA model** is auramarkets' replica of how the systematic trend-following industry — the multi-billion-dollar CTA funds — is likely positioned across the macro complex right now.

It tracks **20 pillars** (equities, rates, FX, commodities) and runs Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM) signals on each. The output is a per-asset directional bias: **long**, **short**, or **flat**.

## Why this matters

CTAs collectively manage hundreds of billions and trade systematically. When their signals flip on a major asset, **flow follows** — sometimes for weeks. Knowing where they sit is knowing where a meaningful chunk of macro flow is biased.

It's not a leading indicator of *price* — it's a positioning indicator. Trade it as "what's the crowd doing," not "what should I do."

## The 20 pillars

Equities (US, EU, EM, etc.), sovereign bonds across the curve, major FX crosses, energy, metals, agricultural softs. The full list is on the page itself.

## How signals work

For each pillar, the model computes momentum at three horizons:

| Horizon     | Catches                   |
| ----------- | ------------------------- |
| **20-day**  | Short-term flips, fastest |
| **60-day**  | Medium-term trend         |
| **200-day** | Secular regime            |

These are combined into a single TSMOM score per asset. **Hysteresis** is applied — the signal won't flip back and forth on noise; it requires a meaningful move to change direction.

The model exposes three weighting **schemas** (A, B, C) — different blends of the three horizons. A is the default; B emphasizes shorter-term signals; C is the slowest.

## What you'll see on the page

* **Per-asset card** with: current direction (long/short/flat), TSMOM score, vol state (Low / Normal / Spiking), days since last flip
* **Aggregate view** — how many pillars are long vs short, broken out by asset class
* **Vol context** — assets in "Spiking" vol get flagged; CTAs typically reduce risk on spiking vol regardless of trend

## The strip on the Macro page

You don't have to open the full model to get the read. The Macro page's default view carries a one-row **CTA Pulse strip**: five class chips (Eq / Bd / FX / Cmd / Cr, each ▲ long, ▼ short, or – flat), a one-line verdict ("Trend books lean risk-on — 3 of 5 classes long"), the single strongest long and short (scores on hover), an amber **near-flip count** that only appears when an asset is within half a percent of flipping direction, and a **crowding** chip summarizing how correlated the positioning is (exact cluster numbers on hover). Click anywhere on the strip to open the full model.

## How to use it

* **Confirmation, not signal** — if you're considering a long S\&P trade and the CTA model says equities are positioned long across the board, you're with the crowd. That's not bad, just know it.
* **Crowded position warning** — when 18 of 20 pillars are positioned the same way (long-everything or short-everything), reversal risk grows. Crowded trades unwind hard.
* **Vol-spike de-risking** — when vol state flips to Spiking on a held position, expect CTA selling pressure regardless of the trend signal.