> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://auramarkets.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Earnings Monitor
> The season's full calendar and scoreboard — every reporter enriched with writer positioning, factor-book membership, 13F flows, and options-implied moves.
The [Earnings Monitor](https://auramarkets.io/earnings) (nav: **Markets → Earnings**) is the season-level view of earnings: who reports next, what the market has priced for the move, what your writers and the 13F crowd think going in — and once the prints land, how the season is actually scoring.
Two tabs: **Calendar** (forward-looking) and **Scoreboard** (the season so far, graded as prints land). Above both sits the **Season vs History** strip — the long-term context layer.
## Season vs History
The scoreboard tells you how *this* season is scoring; the strip above it tells you whether that's *unusual*. It tracks the S\&P 500 season against its own 5- and 10-year history, sourced from **FactSet Earnings Insight** (the weekly S\&P 500 earnings scorecard used across the industry) and refreshed automatically as new editions publish.
One composed read leads — e.g. *"Record-scale beats (+29.2% vs +7.0% 5y avg) — but beats are being sold (+0.4% vs +1.0% 5y avg)"* — followed by six chips, each showing the current value against its 5-year average with a deviation arrow:
| Chip | Why it's the one that matters |
| ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **EPS surprise** | The aggregate beat *magnitude* — the headline "how strong is this season" number. The tooltip carries the ex-one-off version (a single mega-cap mark-to-market gain can own the aggregate) and the 10-year average. |
| **Beat rate** | Displayed as deviation from its norm. Beat rates are managed — \~75–80% of companies "beat" in a normal quarter — so the level means little; the gap vs history is the signal. |
| **Reaction beat / miss** | The average price move around beats and around misses vs their 5-year norms. The only chip measuring *positioning* rather than fundamentals: beats rewarded less than usual means good news was already in the price. Shown amber, not green, when beats are being sold. |
| **Negative guidance** | Share of guiders guiding below consensus vs the 5-year average — the season's forward-looking output, and a metric almost nobody retail-side watches. |
| **EPS growth YoY** | Blended growth today next to what was expected at quarter start — how much the season itself moved the number. |
| **Net margin** | The durability read: a season of beats on collapsing margins reads very differently from one on record margins. |
Each chip carries a **mini sparkline of its full quarterly history** (back to 2019), and **clicking a chip opens the full chart** — every quarter as a line, the 5-year average as a dashed reference, tooltips labeled by fiscal quarter. An **amber dot** marks any quarter whose numbers were snapshotted mid-season (FactSet skipped publication for a stretch of 2022, so Q2 2022 reflects \~56% of companies reported — the chart says so rather than presenting it as final).
The strip is deliberately a different lens from the scoreboard below it: the strip is **S\&P 500 vs its own history** (FactSet's universe and methodology, with real 5-year baselines); the scoreboard is **every \$1B+ reporter, this season** (auramarkets' own universe). Keeping them separate is what makes each honest.
## Calendar
### Last session
A results strip up top: the prior session's notable reporters with **actual vs estimated EPS**, a **beat / miss** pill, the **EPS surprise %**, and the **price reaction**. Two extra chips appear when they're earned:
* **> implied** — the reaction exceeded what options had priced going in
* **writers ✗** — writers covering the name were leaning the wrong way on the print
### This week
Day-by-day columns (grouped **BMO** / **AMC**) for every upcoming reporter, sorted by size. Each row packs the pre-print context onto one line:
| Element | What it tells you |
| ------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Market cap + est EPS** | Size and the consensus bar to clear |
| **imp ±% · avg ±%** | The options-implied move for this print next to the stock's average realized earnings move — a 12% implied vs 3.5% average is the market bracing for something |
| **Writer lean chips** | `bullish · 3` / `bearish · 2` / `mixed · 9` — the corpus's net positioning on the name going into the print, from tracked [calls](/research/calls) |
| **Factor-book chips** | Which [basket books](/indices/factors) hold the name (`Momentum L/S`, `Low Vol L/S`, `High Beta L/S`…) — a crowded-book name moves differently on a surprise |
| **13F glyphs** | Net fund buying/selling from the [Smart Money](/research/thirteenf) tracker (`13F 3▲ 2▼`) |
| **squeeze** | The name sits in the Most Shorted book — short-crowded into a print |
Filters keep the firehose usable: a size floor (**$1B+ / $10B+ / \$100B+**) and a scope toggle (**All / My names / Writer-covered**). Clicking any row opens the [stock pop-out](/indices/stock-chart).
## Scoreboard
The season graded, refreshed as prints land:
* **Headline cards** — season-wide **beat rate**, **median EPS surprise**, the **median day move after beats vs misses** (this season's real reward/punishment asymmetry), and **how often the move exceeded the straddle** — the "were options cheap this season?" number.
* **By sector** — beat rate, sample count, and median reaction per sector, as ranked bars.
* **By size / by week** — the same cut across market-cap buckets ($100B+ / $10–100B / \$1–10B) and across each week of the season.
* **Best / worst reactions** — the season's biggest post-print winners and losers with their EPS surprise attached, which is where the "beat big, still sold off −40%" tape tells you what the market is really paying for.
The calendar's forward names come from the same feed as the [Today's Earnings strip](/indices/overview#todays-earnings) on Equities and the on-deck lines in the [Pre-Market Brief](/macro/daily-digest) — the Monitor is the same data given a season-wide memory.