> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://auramarkets.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# AI Watch
> The AI trade on one page — hyperscalers, Mag 7, semis, and memory, with the signals price charts don't carry: single-name CDS, H100 rental prices, DRAM/NAND spot, and token demand.
[AI Watch](https://auramarkets.io/ai) (nav: **Markets → AI Watch**) is a dedicated dashboard for the defining trade of this market. The premise: the AI complex can't be judged from equity prices alone — the earliest signals live in **credit** (what default insurance costs on the borrowers funding the buildout), **hardware markets** (what compute and memory actually cost), and **usage** (whether inference demand keeps growing). AI Watch puts all of it beside the stocks.
Several of these series exist nowhere else as charts. Their sources publish *today's value only* — so auramarkets records them daily, and the charts deepen permanently from here.
## AI Universe
The heart of the page: one module, **two levels of depth**, toggled in the header.
* **The Complex** — five groups: Hyperscalers (now including SpaceX, Alibaba, and Tencent), Mag 7 adds, Semiconductors, Memory (SanDisk through Samsung, plus Seagate and Everpure), and Neo-clouds (CoreWeave, Nebius). Group membership follows Morgan Stanley's AI-infrastructure taxonomy, with a few deliberate keeps (SanDisk; the Mag 7 adds group). SpaceX (SPCX) joined at its June 2026 IPO — Morgan Stanley classifies it as a hyperscaler.
* **Value Chain** — the complete Morgan Stanley value chain: **8 layers** (Owners/Operators → Semi Production → Processor → Server Components → Server → Network → Internal Power/Cooling → Power Supply), **33 segments**, \~220 names including the full international supply chain — TSMC's Taiwanese suppliers, the Japanese equipment makers, Korean memory, Chinese optics, and the global power/grid complex. Where a company appears in several segments — NVIDIA is in five — the repetition *is* the read: it marks the chain's chokepoints.
Each level offers **four layouts** and shares the [thematic map's](/indices/thematic-heatmap) control language:
* **Table** — The Complex shows every name with price, returns, **forward P/E** against live analyst consensus, the **30-day revision** in that consensus, **RPO** (contracted backlog in $B with its quarter-over-quarter change, straight from SEC filings), and the **Market focus** column (the metrics coverage actually cites, from the [research corpus](/research/overview) + X). Value Chain shows the 33 segments as aggregate rows under their layer headers, with **breadth (% above the 50-day)** and each segment's **best/worst name over the week** inline — expand any segment to see its constituents. In both tables the **category bands carry their own aggregates**: equal-weight returns per group or layer, the group's median forward P/E and summed RPO (the Hyperscalers band totals ~$1.9T of contracted backlog), so the strips read as summary rows, not dividers.
* **Treemap** — tiles sized by cap class, colored by the selected measure; hover for detail, click for the standard [stock pop-out](/indices/stock-chart).
* **Bars** — segments/groups ranked by the selected measure, with min–max constituent whiskers showing dispersion inside each; click a bar to drill into its members.
* **RRG** — relative rotation vs SPY (the same math as the thematic and factor RRGs): which groups/segments are leading, weakening, lagging, or improving.
And three **measures** across the full lookback set (1D → 3Y plus a custom start date): raw **% change**, **z-score** (the move against that entity's own volatility — a +2% day means nothing for CoreWeave and everything for Microsoft), and **MA breadth** (% of members above the 20/50/200-day average). Recent IPOs (SPCX) show raw % until they accrue enough history for z-scores and the RRG. Company **logos** render on the treemap tiles, table rows, and drilled bars — international listings included.
The camera icon in the header **exports any view**: download a PNG or copy the image to your clipboard (branded, ready to paste into a chat), and in table views also **Copy CSV** — the visible rows, expansion state included, ready for a spreadsheet.
## Baskets
Equal-weight rebased indices that follow the level toggle — the five groups at The Complex, the eight chain layers at Value Chain, always against SPY — with the same control language as the [sector monitor](/indices/overview): a lookback dropdown (1D → 2Y, YTD, custom dates), a **% vs Zσ** toggle, and three views — ranked **bars** around a zero line, the rebased **lines**, and a **correlation matrix** of the baskets' daily returns over the selected window (which baskets are actually the same trade right now, and which diversify). The divergence between them *is* the story — memory and semis versus flat hyperscalers tells you where the cycle's profits are actually landing.
## Universe movers
Beside Baskets: the **top and bottom five single names** across whichever level is active — all \~30 core names at The Complex, all \~220 at Value Chain. Each row carries the full company name, its layer · segment address, a centered-zero bar, and the **% / Zσ pair** (the toggle picks which ranks; names without enough history drop out of the σ ranking). Any lookback from 1D to 3Y plus a custom date, and a **line view** that plots the current ten movers' rebased paths over the window. This is where the chain's tails surface — the Japanese substrate maker up 24% on the day, or the neo-cloud down 13% — names that would otherwise hide inside segment aggregates.
## Credit — single-name CDS
Daily 5-year CDS settlement levels for fourteen AI-complex names, from ICE's clearing house. Quoted as a price per 100 par — **lower = more stress**. Two tiles lead the panel:
* **The MSFT − ORCL gap** — Microsoft is the market's safest tech credit; Oracle is funding AI capex with debt. The gap between their CDS is the cleanest daily read on whether credit believes the buildout pays for itself.
* **CoreWeave's level** — the pure-play AI-infrastructure borrower, quoted on the high-yield convention.
Names on different coupon conventions (100bp vs 500bp) aren't directly comparable — the table tags the exceptions. And leveraged loans (where private AI-datacenter lending lives) are invisible to every public feed; the panel says so rather than pretending otherwise.
## Hyperscaler bond spreads
The cash-bond complement to the CDS panel: a daily **G-spread basket** — what hyperscaler bonds yield over Treasuries — built from free primary sources (per-bond yields from iShares LQD/IGLB daily holdings files, the Treasury curve from FRED). \~147 bonds across Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet; the headline line is the **20y+ long basket** (the long end is where the AI-capex debate prices), with per-issuer lines toggleable — Oracle trading at multiples of Microsoft's spread *is* the story. A grey static reference shows Goldman's hyperscaler bond basket (GSUCHS30), recovered from a published chart, for back-history to February 2026; our own series accrues daily from August 2026.
## Capex engine
Straight from quarterly SEC filings — fact, not consensus: trailing-twelve-month **capex** per hyperscaler, the aggregate **capex-to-operating-cash-flow ratio** (the "how much of the cash machine goes straight back out" number), each name's **free cash flow**, and **RPO** — contracted backlog, the metric the market-focus poll ranked #1. Oracle's negative FCF and its RPO running at multiples of annual revenue sit side by side here, which is the whole debate in two numbers.
## Compute & memory
* **Cost of compute** — H100 rental \$/GPU/hr from three markets daily: RunPod (spot and on-demand), Shadeform (the neocloud median, with a live-availability count), and Vast (the marketplace floor). The spot-vs-on-demand spread and availability are genuine tightness signals no vendor publishes as a series.
* **Memory spot** — daily DRAM (DDR5/DDR4), NAND wafer, and GDDR prices, rebased for comparison, with the trend arrows from the source. HBM has no spot market anywhere — its story shows up through the memory equities and contract-price headlines instead.
## Token demand
Daily tokens routed through OpenRouter (about 19 months of history), with the **China share** of attributed tokens as a sub-panel — a usage-weighted read on whether Chinese open-weight models are taking inference share. Source: OpenRouter (openrouter.ai/rankings).
OpenRouter is a router, not the whole market — it undercounts first-party traffic (ChatGPT, Gemini) and over-represents open-weight models. The *trend* is the signal, not the level.
## Taiwan risk premium
TAIEX ÷ KOSPI, rebased — both are AI-supply-chain markets, so the ratio isolates Taiwan-specific geopolitical discount from the common semis beta. A falling ratio = the Taiwan discount widening versus Korea.
## News & wrap
Wire headlines tagged with universe names over the last 48 hours, plus the **AI wrap** — a nightly synthesis of the day's AI-complex news in a handful of bullets, each naming its tickers.
## Honest limits
The hardware and CDS charts start thin — recording began August 2026, and depth accrues daily (token history backfills to early 2025; capex and consensus data carry their own history). Forward P/E uses current-fiscal-year consensus, not a blended next-twelve-months. And the Market focus labels are a snapshot of the narrative, refreshed by re-running the poll — not a live feed.